Tesla results
Third quarter 2024 results beat estimates. The stock is up +12% in the aftermarket . Despite this, we maintain our Sell recommendation.
Announced Q3 results after the close. Key figures compared to Bloomberg consensus:
Revenue: $25,182 million (+8% YoY) vs. $25,427 million estimated.
EBIT: $2,717M (+54%) vs. €1,960M.
BNA $2,505M (+8%) vs. Estimated $2,065M.
EPS $0.72 (+9% YoY) vs. $0.60 estimate.
Analysis of Tesla's results
Figures that beat estimates , except in terms of revenue. The most important thing is the evolution of margins . The gross margin closes the quarter at 19.8% vs. 16.8% estimated and 17.9% in Q3 2023. Excluding regulatory credits, it remains at 17.0% vs. 14.9% estimated. It is a surprising evolution because it occurs despite the policy of price cuts and financing facilities implemented by the Company. In the conference with analysts, Musk announces a growth in deliveries of +20%/+30% next year, advances in autonomous driving also in 2025 and the launch of more affordable models in the first half of 2025. With this, it covers the most sensitive points for the value, which are precisely those that have slowed its evolution this year (-14% at yesterday's close) and the value advances +12% in the aftermarket . However , we remain cautious and our recommendation is Sell .
The sales growth target seems very aggressive to us in a context in which electric vehicles are losing their appeal. In fact, Tesla's deliveries in Q3 disappointed consensus estimates (462,890 vehicles, +6.4% YoY, vs. 463,896 vehicles expected) and for the year as a whole could be around 1.8M at best, which represents flat growth compared to 2023. In autonomous driving, just 10 days ago it disappointed with the presentation of the "robotaxi". It offered very few details about the vehicle. It only indicated that it will not start producing it until 2026 (now it seems to bring this forward to 2025), without indicating when mass production could begin and have the necessary regulatory authorisations to allow its circulation. Its design was also not convincing. It is a two-seater model that will hardly be able to meet the main needs of space for passengers and luggage required by a conventional taxi. Finally, this is not the first time that Musk has promised the launch of new, lower-priced models, only to later delay the previously announced date.